The Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) recently reviewed the performance of Pakistan’s major Kharif crops during 2023-24 and set the production targets for the ongoing Rabi Season.
But the government and its numbers game can only tell so much so I for once decided to do a SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) for all four major Kharif crops to lay out the real picture of where the country stands and where it needs to be.
The knowledge gap is the biggest challenge the agriculture sector faces at the moment driven by the government data that alone paints a murky picture and more focus on the semantics rather than the structural issues of the sector and this is a small attempt to bridge the gap and guide the agribusiness and agritech industry towards the problems worth solving.
Cotton: A Revival But Nothing to Be Excited About
Pakistan, the world’s 5th largest cotton producer, boasts a robust textile industry contributing 8 percent to the GDP and driving 60 percent of exports.
But Pakistan lost the prime place on the global stage in the last two decades as the government failed to effectively exploit the potential of BullGuard seed technology and an energy crisis in textiles during the late 2000s left farmers growing a crop with a lot more care and trouble but not so much of demand leading to shrinking to acreage and production.
Pakistan’s cotton production declined by 34.7 percent between 2014 and 2022 from 12.7 million bales to 8.3 million bales with a 31 percent drop in acreage and a 6 percent reduction in productivity.
Though cotton production fell to an all-time low of 5 million bales in 2023 due to floods, FCA expects the crop to continue the revival with a production forecast of 11.5 million bales. Independent experts put the forecast at 9-10 million bales in light of the recent slowdown in arrivals.
The cotton sector still grapples with low productivity, inadequate research and development, and financial crises in top research institutions. The menace of unapproved varieties, mixing, and over-regulations on private seed imports add complexity.
Despite these challenges, opportunities arise with new triple gene technology, a growing need for self-sufficiency, and trends in traceability for international competitiveness. Embracing organic cotton and sustainable practices presents a pathway forward, although threats loom large, including the whitefly pest, climate change, no enforcement of government-announced support prices and uncompetitive textile exports.
Pakistan’s cotton production has witnessed a rebound in recent years due to new triple gene varieties and record-high textile exports boosting demand and prices, bringing lost acreage back. Punjab on the other hand is set to post the lowest yield per hectare average in the last decade with arrivals from Sindh poised to account for a major share of production.
While this is attributed to Sindh’s climate and cropping patterns better suitable for early cotton cultivation that saves the crop from floods and pest attacks, it needs further investigation at the institutional level.
Rice: A Water-Intensive Rise
As the 4th biggest exporter and 9th largest producer globally, Pakistan’s rice sector holds a strategic position. A strong export value chain, diverse long-grain varieties, and a solid research base underscore its strengths.
Pakistan’s rice production witnessed a 37 percent rise in production between 2014 and 2022 from 6.8 million tons to 9.32 million tons with a 27 percent rise in acreage but only a 4 percent rise in productivity. Production dropped by 21.5 percent in 2023 due to devastating floods but FCA expects the production to rebound back to over 8.6 million tons during 2023-24 with rice exports forecasted to fetch record $3 billion on the back of all-time high prices.
Lower productivity, high water intensity, competition with other grain crops, slow adoption of Alternate Wet and drying (AWD) and direct seed rice technology and the need for quality controls for exports with the application of banned pesticides in practice pose challenges. Opportunities abound with new hybrid cultivars, Chinese-Pakistani collaboration in seed production, and rising international demand.
Technology adoption, value addition, and a sustainable rice program provide avenues for growth. Yet, threats such as uncompetitive exports due to energy tariffs and high-interest rates, climate change uncertainties, and escalating irrigation costs, and pesticide MRL (maximum residue limit) detection due to conventional pesticide usage warrant strategic attention.
Sugarcane: A Sweet Spot with Bitter Challenges
Pakistan’s sugar industry, valued in billions, faces both sweetness and bitterness. With the 5th rank in cane acreage and 9th in production, government support and a strong demand base both domestic and industrial, fuel its strengths.
Pakistan sugarcane production increased by 30.42 percent between 2014-2023 from 67.4 million tons to 88 million tons coupled with a 12 percent and 20 percent rise in acreage and productivity, respectively. But FCA expects the sugarcane production to drop by 10.7 percent to 78 million tons during 2023-24 with an 11 percent decline in acreage and a 3 percent reduction in productivity.
Water-intensive cultivation, limited resistant varieties to red rot and whip smut, long duration compared to other crops, delayed payments, low tech adoption, high dependency on labour, no implementation on recommendation by sugar sector, Reforms Committee and legal troubles pose significant weaknesses. Opportunities lie in ethanol production, research and development, and diversification.
Meanwhile, non-existent regulatory environments, climate change impacts, and unaffordability relative to other crops pose formidable threats.
Corn- A Success Story Biting Back Farmers
With the strongest RandD base and significant profitability, Pakistan’s corn industry is a key player. Providing multiple crops annually, strongest RandD base of all, and supporting billion-dollar poultry and dairy industries, corn’s strengths are noteworthy.
Pakistan corn production rose by a massive 122 percent between 2014 and 2023 from 4.9 million tons to 10.98 million tons with a 47 percent and 40 percent increase in acreage and productivity. However, the FCA expects the production to decline by percent to 10.3 million tons with a 2 drop in acreage, though productivity is expected at a 4 percent ascent.
Challenges include high expenses, lack of an established export value chain, dependence on US/LATAM Corn Grain Market Trends and a dearth of government support. Opportunities lie in value addition, corn use for ethanol and biofuel using GMO varieties, exploiting huge corn silage demand in GCC and tapping into more domestic and regional markets.
Threats such as high land rents, storage issues, and the ever-present fall armyworm pest require strategic mitigation. Corn is Pakistan’s one of it’s kind success story of the last decade but the surplus production and not enough avenues explored are driving down the prices this year and significantly hitting the farmers’ margins.
Source: Pro Pakistani